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Dream fights

10 MMA Dream Fights That Never Happened

Every fan has a list of fights the sport owed us and never delivered. These are the ten best, the superfights that got away, and because arguing about them is only half the fun, we ran every one through our fight engine to actually call a winner.

A grid of glowing gold octagon outlines receding into darkness, like a bracket of hypothetical fights

Some of these never happened because of weight. Some because of injuries, or timing, or two careers that peaked a decade apart. One was booked five separate times and cancelled every one. What they share is that they would have settled an argument, and instead they left one running forever.

Here is the quick version. The full case for each is below, and the percentages are our engine's, from tens of thousands of simulated fights per matchup, run both directions so neither man gets a home-corner edge. The ratings behind them are set out in how we rate fighters.

Ten MMA dream fights, and our engine's verdict on each.
Dream fightThe engine's call
Jon Jones vs Anderson SilvaCoin flip, Silva 50.2%
Khabib vs GSPCoin flip, dead 50-50
GSP vs Anderson SilvaCoin flip, GSP 50.1%
Khabib vs Tony FergusonKhabib 93%
Jon Jones vs Francis NgannouJones 88%
Prime Anderson Silva vs AdesanyaSilva 74%
GSP vs Kamaru UsmanGSP 74%
Khabib vs Islam MakhachevKhabib 58%
Demetrious Johnson vs Dominick CruzJohnson 74%
Fedor vs Brock LesnarFedor 95%

1. Jon Jones vs Anderson Silva

The one. For years this was the fight, the two men most people put at the top of any greatest-ever list, and for a window around 2013 it was genuinely discussed. Jones was busy dismantling light heavyweight; Silva had ruled middleweight longer than anyone. Then Silva's leg snapped against Weidman, Jones's career took its detours, and the window closed.

Styles make it fascinating: the longest, most creative wrestler in the sport against the most precise counter-striker it has ever produced. Jones wants it on the mat and in the clinch; Silva wants three feet of space and one mistake.

The engine says: a genuine coin flip. Silva takes it 50.2% of the time, most of his wins by knockout; Jones wins on the scorecards with his grappling and reach. Nobody should be confident, and that is exactly why it is the dream fight.

2. Khabib vs GSP

Two undefeated-in-spirit greats, two of only a handful of men with a real claim on the pound-for-pound throne, kept apart by 15 pounds and a promotion that never pushed. Khabib wanted lightweight; GSP, older and off a long layoff, wanted a catchweight. It stayed a what-if.

The engine says: a dead heat, 50-50, but they win different fights entirely. Khabib grinds and submits; GSP outpoints. It is close enough that we gave it the full treatment: Khabib vs GSP, simulated 400,000 times.

3. GSP vs Anderson Silva

Before Khabib, this was the superfight. Around 2013 both men were cleaning out their divisions and the sport wanted them to meet in the middle. GSP was the relentless, complete welterweight; Silva the untouchable middleweight artist. It was talked about, teased, and never signed.

The engine says: another coin flip, GSP by a hair at 50.1%. The size and the wrestling keep St-Pierre in it; the striking gap keeps Silva dangerous every second it is standing. Two of the three closest fights on this list are Silva's, which tells you what prime Anderson was.

4. Khabib vs Tony Ferguson

The cursed fight. Booked five times, cancelled five times, by injury, illness, weight and finally a pandemic. For years it was the most anticipated lightweight fight on the planet, El Cucuy's chaos against The Eagle's suffocation. By the time the stars aligned, they never did.

The engine says: this is where the romance dies. Khabib wins around 93%. Ferguson's whole game is scrambles and submissions off his back, and top control from a 99-rated grappler is the one thing that turns those scrambles into 25 minutes of being held down. The fans wanted a war. The maths wanted a mauling.

5. Jon Jones vs Francis Ngannou

Wrestler versus the hardest puncher the sport has ever measured. Ngannou left the UFC without ever sharing a cage with Jones, taking the most terrifying right hand in MMA to the boxing ring instead. It is the heavyweight fight the division was built to deliver and never did.

The engine says: Jones around 88%. It is the oldest story in the sport: elite wrestling neutralises elite power. Ngannou's route is the 80% of his own wins that come by knockout, the one clean shot before the takedown lands. He just does not get to throw it often enough.

6. Prime Anderson Silva vs Israel Adesanya

They did fight, in 2019, and Adesanya won a decision. But Silva was 44 and a shell. The fight the sport actually owed us was prime against prime: the master who invented the style against the student who perfected it, two of the best pure strikers middleweight has produced, twenty years apart.

The engine says: prime Silva around 74%. Adesanya is the more refined technician on volume, but prime Silva's power and finishing instinct are a different tier, and the engine rewards the man who ends fights over the man who wins rounds. Say it to an Adesanya fan and stand back.

7. GSP vs Kamaru Usman

The welterweight GOAT debate, in one booking that never happened. GSP retired as the standard; Usman spent his reign being measured against him and never got the chance to answer it directly. Two of the most complete 170-pounders ever, wrestling-based, cerebral, almost impossible to finish.

The engine says: GSP around 74%. It is closer than the number sounds, but St-Pierre's striking and his fight IQ over five rounds edge it clearly. Usman's power is his best path, and against GSP's chin and control, power alone has rarely been enough.

8. Khabib vs Islam Makhachev

The fight that can never happen. Teammate and mentor against student, the same room, the same coach, the same style raised to two generations of dominance. Neither man would take it, and neither should. Which is exactly why we wanted to see the numbers.

The engine says: the sensei, but closely, Khabib around 58%. Islam is arguably the more polished striker of the two; Khabib's grappling and top pressure are still the family heirloom nobody has bettered. Competitive, and the only fight on this list where the model almost apologises for picking a side.

9. Demetrious Johnson vs Dominick Cruz

Two of the finest technical minds the little men have produced, a division apart and a few years off from a clean collision. Mighty Mouse's flawless all-round game against Cruz's footwork-and-angles puzzle. It is the connoisseur's dream fight on this list, and it never got made.

The engine says: Johnson around 74%. Cruz's movement keeps it competitive and pushes most of his own wins to decisions, but DJ's finishing threat everywhere, on the feet and on the mat, is the separator. The most complete fighter usually is.

10. Fedor vs Brock Lesnar

The great lost heavyweight fight of the golden era. Around 2010, Fedor Emelianenko was the mythical best heavyweight alive and Lesnar was the UFC's monster champion, and the sport split across two promotions that would not do business. The number one and the champion, never in the same cage.

The engine says: Fedor around 95%. Lesnar's size and wrestling were real, but the skill gap on the feet and off his back is a chasm, and Fedor's calm in bad positions is the whole legend. The dream was always more about what could have been than what it would have been.

The pattern in the picks

Look at the top of the table. The three closest fights on the list, the only genuine coin flips, all involve Jones, Silva or GSP, and Silva is in two of them. That is not an accident of the model. The truly even matchups happen between the tiny handful of fighters our ratings put at the absolute ceiling, and when you are already at the ceiling, the only thing that can give you a 50-50 is another man standing on it.

Everywhere else, a clear favourite emerges, because a small edge in the fight's deciding skill compounds over 25 minutes. Ferguson is a great fighter and loses nine times in ten to the one style that cancels his. That is the sport in miniature, and it is the exact logic the game is built on.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the greatest MMA dream fight that never happened?
Jon Jones vs Anderson Silva is the most-argued MMA dream fight of all time: the two men widely seen as the greatest ever, in their primes. In our simulation it is a genuine coin flip, with Silva winning 50.2% of fights, mostly by knockout, and Jones winning on the scorecards.
Would Khabib have beaten Tony Ferguson?
Their fight was booked and cancelled five times and never happened. Fans expected a war, but our engine does not: prime Khabib beats prime Ferguson in roughly 93% of simulations. Ferguson's submission-heavy scramble game is exactly what Khabib's top control shuts down.
Who wins, GSP or Kamaru Usman?
It is the welterweight GOAT debate, and our engine sides with Georges St-Pierre, who wins around 74% of simulations. GSP's edge is his striking and fight IQ over 25 minutes; Usman's power is his best route to the upset.
Did prime Anderson Silva ever fight Israel Adesanya?
They fought in 2019, but Silva was 44 and years past his prime. The prime-versus-prime fight never happened. In our simulation, prime Silva beats Adesanya around 74% of the time on power and precision.
HA
Creator of 30-0 and writer of The Corner. A lifelong MMA fan who has dabbled in boxing, kickboxing, muay thai, jiu jitsu and judo, and who built the engine every verdict here was run on. More about Harry.